fireworks come early. let's play "hardball". good evening. i'm chuck todd. sitting in for chris matthews. can't we all just get along. governments in minnesota shut down. lockouts in the nfl and nba. democrats and republicans aren't remetly close to an agreement on the debt ceiling. democrats and republicans are waiting for other side to blink on raising the debt ceiling and the mere prospect of default has real life implications for the

rest of us, interest rates and the economic recovery. are the two parties really willing to play roulette with the u.s. and global economy. if the u.s. government defaults on its debts or comes close, disgust with our politicians could become so great that it could open a door to a serious run since an independent. not since ross perot have we seen anything like it. on this independence day weekend we ask, could you see an independent run by a third-party candidate? plus, did mitt romney put on the flip-flops. romney told nbc news quote, i didn't say that things are worse except he did days earlier quite a few times. we've got it on tape. in an independence day panel of experts to look ahead at the republican field and all the money reports and the president's chances of re-election. and we mentioned the nba lockout added to this nfl lockout. is it possible we could be

looking at an autumn and a winter with no football and basketball because millionaires and billionaires can't agree on how to divide billions of dollars. finally, what's wrong with this picture? nothing if you're mitt romney. what candidate's son is posing with him. it's the son of another presidential candidate. we're going to have it all in the side show. we start with steve israel. he's the chairman of the dccc and a democrat from new york. there's a lot of he saids, he sads going on. yesterday senator chuck schumer speculated that republicans are trying to sabotage the economy to see president obama fail. let's listen to it. >> we need to start asking ourselves an uncomfortable question, are republicans slowing down the recovery on purpose for political gain in 2012? now it's becoming clear that insisting on a slash and burn

approach may be part of this plan. it has a double benefit for republicans. it's idea logically tidy and undermines economic recovery which they think helps them in 2012. if the public comes to believe that republicans are deliberately sabotaging the economy, it will backfire politically. >> that is a harsh charge. that's a member of the democratic leadership arguably the second most powerful u.s. senator in the democratic controlled senate. do you agree with senator schumer there, congressman? >> the fact of the matter is even a republican economist, john mccain's economic advisor said today that if the republicans do not come to the table and engage in a fair and balanced negotiation that extends the debt limit without in a fair way that increases revenues and reduces spending that we will be thrown back into a recession.

more people will lose their jobs. people's credit card interest rates will be going up. the fact of the matter is any progress we've made on the economy will be lost by the single act of republicans failing to negotiate in a fair and balanced way where the sacrifice is shared and not born by the middle class. >> can you -- >> look at eric cantor who quit on the economy, quit on the talks. refused to negotiate. he's the number two guy. chuck schumer may be the number two guy in the senate. eric cantor is the number two guy in the republican leadership many the senate. he quit on the economy. that tells me everything i need to know about how the republicans negotiate. >> it doesn't sound like you're ready to sign on with senator schumer's theory that the republicans are trying to sab tang the economy. >> i am more interested in outcome than input. we need to reduce debt and the way to do that is to decrease spending, democrats are willing

to tighten our belts. we understand we need to do that. we've come up with trillion dollars in cuts. we need to ask big oil companies and people making over million dollar to do their fair share by increasing revenues. >> have a good fourth of july weekend and we'll see you -- >> big mets and yankees series in new york tonight. i'll be watching. >> i'm always rooting for the national league. always got to stick to it the big guys. thanks. >> thank you. all right. joining me now major garrett chief congressional correspondent for the national journal. doesn't want to kick the can down the road. sounded like a guy -- all right, if that's the deal that's cut and there's a temporary deal and it sometimes right now that's what smells like what's coming. >> he would have said i will vote against that. he didn't say that. >> that's what it's important. >> he didn't say i will vote against it. that's important. it's going to have to be up to

the house republican leadership to bring that to the floor to agree to a short-term resolution of this absent a huge deal. eric cantor told me this week -- >> a great column about eric cantor. if we look at it in five pots here, the white house, senate republicans, senate democrats, house democrats all would reluctantly support the short-term deal. the one who wouldn't, house republicans don't want to vote twice on a debt ceiling. >> they don't want to vote twice. the house republican majority now totals 229 that want this to be the motion of decision. they don't want to have a moment of indecision. they want this to come to a head now with all the implications that come with it. the only way, chuck, i see a short-term agreement passing is if implied in that, written almost in blood that the short-term is all spending cuts no revenues. zero. >> right.

>> and you agree preemptively that the second stage of negotiations will include tax reform and the present commits publicly to lower individual rates, lower corporate rates then you take a look at subsidies democrats have been talking about. >> republicans might sign on to that. but we're a long, long way from any kind of deal like that. >> the thing that i've never bought into is who the heck -- i'm going to fast forward seven months from now is going to have more political courage that they do now in the middle of an election year. >> zero. unless you believe as the republicans might that the president will be even more willing to lower rates and do other things because he's so desperate about the economy. that's one possible scenario, but i share your skepticism. >> who's got the leverage? on one hand you had president obama this week decided to do something go publicly. >> called them out. >> that got under the skin of senate republicans. that ticked them off. everybody thinks they have some

leverage. >> not only lechbl, but enentrenched positions that must be defended. republicans believe with a slack economy if they give in on tax increases, they base which isn't in love with them in the first place, will defect. >> how fragile is that? you were telling me they were afraid of losing 100 members on this vote. >> house republicans i think have reasonable fears of losing up to 100 maybe 120. if you lose that many house republicans that's a borderline crisis. democrats similarly don't believe they can go anywhere farther than where they've gone on spending cuts with no revenues. when you've got 23 senate democratic seats up and a base walking away from you you, that's a crisis. >> here was the response yesterday to president obama. >> so maybe if he'd just take a

valium and calm down and calm and talk to us, it might be helpful. >> it's class warfare and the kind of language that you might expect from the leader of a third world country not the leader of the united states. >> he should be ashamed. i respect the office of president of united states. but i think the president has deminnished that office and himself by giving the kind of campaign speeches that he gave yesterday. >> you know, major, i'm sort of surprised that they're all shocked. at the end of the day there's been a lot of shots fired at the white house. a lot of shots at the president questioning his leadership. it's only natural that the president's going to fight back. >> the president is 48 or 49 in the polls. his economic numbers are more shallow. he personally is at 49. the president's press conference was about moving the neeld of public opinion. both sides are entrenched.

>> and frying to reframe the debate a little bit. >> generally speaking the american public sees congress defending itself for inaction, they assume they're inactive. the president knows he's got more to gain potentially than to lose by striking this particular contrast with congress. now, it's also fair to say the president invited them into the negotiations. they walked away, but for seven or eight weeks they've been talk and working. >> i have had people say to me they've all watched the movie "dave" too much. every day come on in, let's go, four hours. until it happens. >> until that happens, which governor christie has done in new jersey. other presidents have done, until we see that kind of engagement which we did at the very end, which told us it can work. until we see that level of engagement, we're not moving anywhere. i'm telling you chuck, by the middle of this month the markets will start to price this.

>> they'll do it early. >> but when the skoj begins to take effect, we don't know what that skoj is going to do. >> by the way, we'll see -- >> i'm unnerved about that potential. >> we'll see what the tea party caucus really is. they say it's 83. great to have you on. thank you. >> thank you. with all this battling over the budget and drama over the debt ceiling there may be room for a third party candidate for president especially if washington continues its gridlock. is the opportunity for some independent candidate to get many the race like ross perot did in the '90s. waiting for perot? you're watching "hardball" only on msnbc. a compass and it always points true north. toward mountains of sand. toward new sights and sensations. toward the true bounty of nature so let's set our compass for traverse city and find ourselves.

in the magic, and the moments of pure michigan. your trip begins at michigan.org.

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welcome back to "hardball." it's no secret voters are unhappy with washington, with the president, with congress wrk the economy. could this anger fuel an actual third party on independent candidacy come 2012. we saw it with ross perot, could it happen again? welcome our guests. good guys to have on this topic. hurd fineman, let me start with you, look, the direction of the country just 29% right now in our poll. we got the president's approval rating on the economy is upside down. way over 50% disapprove. congress's job rating is sitting in the teens. the idea that the republicans brought change to congress, majority say, no or the wrong type of change. it's all there. what's it going to take? >> there aren't any respected figure or institution on the

landscape, you're right. i was out in minnesota last week at a democrat event where they were charging themselves up for the big budget fight. i didn't hear anybody say anything particularly nice about barack obama. they didn't attack him. they didn't say anything. on the republican side all they're doing is not paying attention to their own candidates. they're just attacking the president as the center of all evil. what's it going to take? it's going to take somebody with big egoand lots of money. in 1992 that was ross perot. >> he's little. >> the only one who fits all of those descriptions how is the mayor of new york michael bloomberg. >> because he's short? >> no. he's got billions and the ego and the organizational gift, by the way, he built bloomberg just the way perot build perot systems and so forth. these are guys who know how to

build empires and business who think some of them that they can build a temporary empire which is what a presidential campaign is. bloomberg say he's not doing it. >> chris, i want to play for you angus king. he was on another show this morning, one that i'm familiar with called the daily rundown. he brought up a candidate. listen to who angus king floats as a potential candidate for an independent candidacy or third party ticket. listen. >> i think it would be somebody, a guy named chuck hagel a republican senator from nebraska. >> who endorsed obama, essentially. >> she a terrific guy. i could say a guy like that and maybe a slightly disaffected democrat coming together and forming a team that could shang american politics. >> this goes to the idea that the business community isn't

well thought of these days you're not going to get a businessman. there's no other figure like that. it would have to be a did affected paul. >> who is that handment guy interviewing angus king. >> he looked better looking this morning than now. >> i thought he was going to say chuck todd. >> well. >> you bring up a good point that wall street business tycoon type is going to wear a little less well after every -- the bank bailout and the rich guy spending his money because he's interested in money doesn't sell as well. hagel is an interesting idea. there is disaffection. in 2010 people voted for

republicans in congress but they didn't like them. they voted for them even though they disapproved more than they approved. there is an idea out there, yes, we want something different. people underestimate how powerful the two parties are. there are minute things that matter and cost lots of money. getting on ballots in all of the states, collecting signatures, that's why you need a rich guy and/or gal. i just don't see anybody out there. chuck hagel in theory on paper, but is he going to put in the money? it's too much of a pain. >> howard fineman brings up the ballot access. angus king talked about a group called americans elect. there was another group four years ago they're trying to get on the ballot. if there is a group that says here you go, we've got ballot access, there's a lot of politicians whose egos will say if you build it, maybe i will come. >> i think that's true. chris is right, that's the way it would work this time. i'm a little unclear as to how

the new campaign laws and the freedom to have superpacs would allow big money people who if they didn't run on their own, could help fund making sure that one of those parties could get ballot access. when i first started many the '80s. getting ballot access was nearly impossible. it's now possible to do it. you do need a lot of money, but you can do it. you can get on in all 50 states. >> chris, one more poll from nbc "the wall street journal" poll. 31% believe the two-party system is so broken the country needs a third party. 52% says it can work with imprivates to the two-party system. the question is when this happens, when perot rose up, you saw the two parties respond. and bill clinton suddenly became interested in fiscal issues. he hadn't been before that. you saw the republicans suddenly

talk about less government things like that. this time i don't see the two parties trying to look like they're going to get something done and tuck something. >> no. you know chuck, i think what you point to it's possible a third party candidate who comes out that drives the discussion. you remember '92. there was a time when it looked like ross perot was going to win that thing. >> he won the message. >> he shaped the race. is there space for an independent to do that and does that person who gets in are they okay with shaping the race and losing? that's the question. can you be influential and lose and feel like that's okay because like you said, i do think the two parties would react and try to close you out almost immediately. perot had his own money and was able to fight back. >> we could keep talking, it always is fun to speculate about

third party. up next, maybe sarah palin really is a mama grizzly. find out what she demand of fans seeking her autograph at a book signing. next in the side show. 8gg@ú

back to "hardball." now to the side show. first up, a two for one special. a report that at a wednesday joint book signing sarah palin fans were told they had to alibi bristol's book in order to get the exgovernor's autograph. mama grizzly, you bet. speak of political children, john hunt mans's college aged son went to mitt romney's rally. this priceless shot was snapped of him reaching over to pose with the candidate. the huntsman camp says will

simply wanted to see another campaign event. he meant no disrespect. to who, his dad or to mitt romney? new on the books, it's july 1st, hundreds of snu state laws go into effect. in virginia, dead people can vote. starting today if someone sends in an absentee ballot and dies before election day, that vote is still good. how about that? forget that, chicago. over in maryland, have trouble leaving your dog? good news dogs are allowed in restaurants with outdoor tables and patios provide they're on a leash. good luck with that. and starting today in new york state, it's mandatory for schools to allow kids to opt out of die secting frogs in bielg. they can watch interactive films. come on now. no dodge ball anymore. you can't get your hands dirty with a frog. you've got to learn what the

guts of an animal looks like. you've got to do the real thing. that's "hardball" for now. coming up next, "your business" with j.j. ramberg. woman: saving for our child's college fund was getting expensive. man: yes it was. so to save some money, we taught our 5 year old how to dunk. woman: scholarship! woman: honey go get him.

anncr: there's an easier way to save. get online. go to geico.com. get a quote. 15 minutes could save you 15% or more on car insurance. inside all of us is a compass and it always points true north. toward mountains of sand. toward new sights and sensations. toward the true bounty of nature so let's set our compass for traverse city and find ourselves. in the magic, and the moments of pure michigan. your trip begins at michigan.org.